Assessing the Iran and Israel Conflict and Where It Might Lead
Did Israel provoke the latest Iranian attack?
It’s not every Saturday that you hear about an imminent drone and ballistic missile attack. My first thought upon hearing about Iran’s attack on Israel was World War III.
My wife asked if we had extra water and food. Movies like Leave the World Behind have left an impression. Maybe the survivalists out there are onto something.
As the Wall Street Journal reported, “Tehran launched more than 170 explosive-laden drones, around 120 ballistic missiles and about 30 cruise missiles.”
Directly at targets in Israel.
When you shoot over 300 flying objects across three fundamentally different weapon types (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones), all designed to hit Israel at precisely the same time, you’re doing more than a show of force. You’re trying to penetrate Israel’s defenses and kill Israelis.
Thankfully, almost all of them were intercepted by either Israel or its partners. Damage to Israel was limited.
For context, Russia has never fired this number and magnitude of drones and missiles at Ukraine since its war started. So it should go without saying—Iran was not simply trying to scare Israel. It was trying to smash her with a sledgehammer.
Big questions remain regarding the Iran and Israel conflict and where it might lead. Did Israel instigate it with airstrikes in Damascus on an Iranian diplomatic facility? Did Israel provoke a broader war with Iran? Should Israel refrain from responding to Iran’s attack?
Let’s critically assess each question in tandem.
Did Israel start the current conflict with Iran?
At first glance, it may appear that Israel started it. Although they have yet to admit to it, Israel has been blamed for an April 1 strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria’s capital, Damascus. The strike killed a senior Iranian general (Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi), along with other Revolutionary Guard members and diplomatic staff.
Limiting our view to this isolated incident, however, fails to account for the bigger picture. Iran and Israel have engaged in a shadow war in the region for decades. With militant groups surrounding Israel on practically all sides - Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Palestine), and the Houthis (Yemen) - Iran has what it calls a “Ring of Fire” that’s precisely designed to pressure Israel and in effect, the United States too.
Iran’s assault on Israel has intensified since October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants killed innocent Israeli citizens while kidnapping hundreds more. Hezbollah has fired rockets and missiles into northern Israel on a near-daily basis for the last 6 months. Many Israelis have had to evacuate their homes in the region.
The Houthis have fired numerous missiles into southern Israel during that same period.
Israel has barely had a moment of peace in the last 6 months in any part of their small country.
And while I will be the first to criticize Israel’s disproportionate response in Gaza, the strike in Damascus on April 1 (assuming it was Israel) was by contrast very targeted and surgical. It hit the Iranian military officials directly responsible for Iran’s ongoing assault against the only Jewish state in the world.
Also, the notion that the target of this recent airstrike was only an Iranian diplomatic building betrays its full purpose. That building in Damascus was the local headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian military (which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and others).
This was not a civilian or purely diplomatic building. The fact it was adjacent to the Iranian embassy did not detract from its military character.
Did Israel provoke a broader war with Iran?
Before diving into that question, consider the implications. As political commentator,
, noted: “[A]ny full-blown war with Iran would likely be a fairly expansive conflict, one that would almost certainly envelop much of the Middle East, and perhaps beyond.”Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis - all financially and politically supported by the Iranian regime and all of them surround Israel.
Historically speaking - including in the past 6 months - Israel has limited its military responses to these Iranian proxy groups. Airstrike in response to airstrike. Artillery fire in response to artillery fire.
But in the past 6 months, many parts of northern and southern Israel (as noted above) have become uninhabitable. The ongoing assaults from Hezbollah and the Houthis in particular have changed the dynamic. All of them are directed or supported by their patron, Iran.
Israel clearly made the calculation recently that their tit-for-tat responses are ineffective. Instead of attacking the Iranian octopus’s tentacles, they realized they needed to attack the octopus itself.
Does this risk provoking the octopus? Of course. More tentacles could strike. More violence could ensue if the octopus feels increasingly threatened.
But until now, Iranian military officials have enjoyed impunity and safety in their ongoing efforts to attack Israel. Now the message has been sent – Iranian military officials are not immune. If they direct or support attacks on Israel, they cannot guarantee their own safety.
What some may argue as provoking a wider and more intensive conflict, Israel may argue it creates deterrence. It may cause an Iranian general to think twice before directing or supporting Hezbollah’s attacks in northern Israel, or the Houthis’ attacks in the south.
Israel cannot ignore the extraordinary escalatory risk this brings, however. While they were able to stop this most recent Iranian attack, with significant help from allies (including Arab states like Jordan), there are no guarantees for next time.
Should Israel refrain from responding to Iran’s attack?
Again, Israel finds itself in an impossible position. Strike back at the most recent Iranian barrage and invite far more devastating retaliation. Or don’t respond at all (or perhaps too weakly) and risk eroding deterrence and creating more vulnerabilities.
If there’s any solace or silver lining for Israel it’s that no matter how many countries dislike Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they dislike Iran’s government more. The show of support for Israel (especially from Arab states) on Saturday was impressive.
Almost none of these states, however, want Israel to respond further. The United States has basically told them to stand down. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the U.K. does not support a retaliatory strike, while French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris will try to “convince Israel that we must not respond by escalating.”
I want to know: are these the same self-defense standards they would hold themselves to?
If a barrage of missiles and attack drones were fired at any of their countries, would they be comfortable with simply standing down? Doing nothing further to defend themselves?
The last thing I want is World War III, but Israel also should not be told, “You are not permitted to defend yourself at all.” Especially when the countries telling her would not take their own directive if they were in her shoes. It’s an unreasonable request.
What is reasonable is proportionality and targeting. Something Israel has failed at miserably in Gaza.
It should be totally reasonable for Israel to strike Iranian drone factories and other facilities that produce the weapons used against Israel this past Saturday.
If Israel does not respond in self-defense, the next attack by Iran could be worse. They could feel emboldened and empowered to act with impunity, just as their generals have been, especially in the past 6 months.
Any other sovereign country in the world would demand the same.
I hope cooler heads prevail and this is the apex of the conflict, but I also hope more people are reasonable in their expectations of Israel.
We cannot make requirements of a sovereign state that we would be unwilling to make on ourselves.
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