Courting Young Men: Donald Trump's Strategy For Reelection
Democrats can't ignore it
I’ve previously written that young men are not alright in America. So it’s not surprising that Donald Trump would target this vulnerable demographic as he tries to win reelection.
The New York Times recently summarized it:
At a time of an immense gender gap in politics among young people — women leaning left, men leaning right — the Trump campaign has been aggressively courting what might be called the bro vote, the frat-boy flank. It’s a slice of 18-to-29-year-olds that has long been regarded as unreliable and unreachable, but that Republicans believe may just swing the election this year.
What The New York Times didn’t summarize is the appropriate context:
While both men and women are suffering from an epidemic of loneliness, the decline for men (and particularly young men) has been steeper—"Fifteen percent of men today say they have no close friendships, a fivefold increase since 1990.”
This may be a leading driver as to why men commit suicide at higher rates than women
Many young men still live in their parent’s home (ages 18-34)—"Gen Z and millennial men in the United States are more likely to live with their parents than women in the same age group. In 2023, approximately 11 percent of women aged 25 to 34 lived in their parents' home, compared to almost 19 percent of men.”
The young male population is vulnerable, to say the least. The same group that has been courted for years by the likes of Jordan Peterson, Joe Rogan, Andrew Tate, and lately, Elon Musk, now finds itself within Donald Trump’s crosshairs.
Trump has made the rounds across the young men “manoverse”, appearing on podcasts and YouTube channels run by the voices of this generation: Logan and Jake Paul, the Nelk Boys, Adin Ross, and Theo Von. He’s soon appearing on Lex Fridman, another increasingly dominant voice in the podcast “manoverse.”
For how these male influencers prey on the young men demographic, read this article. For an objective analysis of how young men could impact the 2024 election, read on below. We’ll also explore solutions on what can be done.
For it’s not in America’s - or the world’s - long-term interests to have a generation of young men idolizing Trump or other male influencers who celebrate misogyny and blame everyone else for their problems but themselves.
The negative blame game has made influencers like Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate fabulously rich. Young men consume their content because they hear they’re not the problem. It’s society’s fault. It’s women’s fault.
- from my essay, Young Men Are Not Alright
Forget about politics for a second.
Do we seriously want our young men looking up to Trump? Someone who cheats on his wife with a porn star (while he has an infant at home), brags about grabbing women by the pu**y, and is an adjudicated sexual abuser.
Politics aside, I’d prefer that our young men act more like Tim Walz.
The odds of young men making a difference for Donald Trump in 2024
With only a few thousand votes making a difference in most swing states, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are fighting for every single vote. And while polling data for younger demographics is still sparse for Harris since she became the nominee, President Biden won younger voters by more than 20 points in 2020 against Donald Trump. This demographic made up roughly 1 in 6 voters last election.
So it’s safe to say that the young person vote - ages 18 to 29 - is an important demographic for both Trump and Harris.
Before Harris became the nominee, Biden was doing terribly with young men. In 2020, Biden won young male voters by +26 against Trump. That lead shrank to +6 just before he dropped out of the race.
Contrast this with the +35 point lead Biden had with young female voters in 2020 to the +33 point lead he had before dropping out and the juxtaposition should be clear — the young male population soured on Biden and as a result, Democrats.
The Democratic Party has failed young men
The jury is still out on Kamala Harris, but the Democratic Party under Biden’s leadership has failed young men. There is a wealth of sociological, economic, and psychological data (as cited above) that points to a mental health and broader crisis affecting young men in America. And yet the Democrats have done next to nothing.
Forget addressing it, they’ve barely talked about it!
Instead, much of the past decade has been spent engaging in identity politics and going overboard on extreme DEI policies (which many in corporate America have now pulled back on).
Don’t get me wrong — diversity, equity, and inclusion are crucial considerations when populating a company or classroom, but that’s all they should be. Considerations. Not the end all be all. Not the primary motivators in hiring, firing, and issuing acceptances to elite universities.
While many of the identity politics and DEI initiatives came from a good place, many institutions executed them poorly in the past few years. They hired diversity chairs who didn’t always understand the businesses or departments they were entering. They mandated diversity training that instructed workforces on microaggressions. Meanwhile, many of the same people championing these policies and training acted far worse following the Hamas attacks on innocent Israeli citizens.
Whether it’s fair to blame President Joe Biden and Democrats for all of this, it’s where many young men have primarily laid the blame (as evidenced by recent poll numbers cited above).
Many listen to Elon Musk. They consume Dave Portnoy’s content. They worship their favorite male podcaster and YouTuber.
Many of these “alpha” male influencers talk tough, aggressive, and hypermasculine. They rarely (if ever) show empathy, compassion, or an ability to think critically or nuanced on a complex issue.
And this is a big reason why Democrats have failed young men — they have not championed alternatives to these more right-wing and conservative male voices.
Fixing the young men problem
We need better male influencers.
Some exist on the center-left already, but they are few and far between. As I previously wrote, “Scott Galloway is probably the most prominent contemporary voice of empathy towards young men.”
Mark Cuban has been a voice of reason and a good counterbalance on X/Twitter to Elon Musk’s insanity.
There are positive masculinity promoters on social media like Timm Chiusano and Blake of Today, but they rarely get political.
Young men need better male role models online who aren’t afraid to champion more liberal causes and still feel macho about it. Guys who aren’t afraid to flip traditional gender roles (like being a stay-at-home dad!). Men who find it cool to celebrate feminism, and yes: diversity, equity, and inclusion.
This need for better male role models to counter the toxic masculinity that permeates the modern internet illustrates why the Tim Walz pick was so brilliant by Kamala Harris. Most people and pundits view Walz as someone who can court Midwestern and “Blue Wall” voters. And he certainly can.
What’s most important about Tim Walz, however, is his ability to communicate with young men. To show them there’s a better way than living a personal life like Donald Trump. To prove that you can still be a tough guy’s guy — football coach, hunter, handyman, etc. — while still having a tender and empathetic heart for women, people in need, and people who may just be different from you.
Tim Walz and Kamala Harris made huge strides at fixing the Democrats’ young men problem with their messaging at the Democratic Convention. They avoided identity politics, DEI, and any blame casting. Instead, they spoke about community and being a good neighbor.
This type of messaging needs to continue if Harris and Walz want to beat Trump and Vance in November. It needs to be even more directed at young men, recognizing the hard time some of them are having at getting started in life. Some of Harris’s proposed policies on her “opportunity economy”, which includes an expanded child tax credit, could go a long way toward convincing young men of a better way with Harris and Walz.
If the Democrats want to avoid a repeat of 2016, they need to be cognizant and aware of polling trends. Polls may not vote, but in hindsight, the writing was on the wall in 2016. Hillary Clinton didn’t even step foot in Wisconsin, and then everyone was initially surprised when she lost the state to Trump.
In 2024, the canary in the coal mine for Democrats could be young men. They have been courted heavily by Trump and Vance through a vast network of male influencers. Those influencers know just how vulnerable that population is, and they’re even spending millions in helping Trump register young men to vote.
If Democrats sleep on the young men demographic, it could have a similar effect to Hillary Clinton not stepping foot in Wisconsin in 2016. And given how impressionable young men can be, it could take decades to reverse the consequences that could have on America and the world.
Further reading:
Young Men Are Not Alright by John Polonis
