How New York City's Political Shift Will Impact Democrats Nationally

Zohran Mamdani's win as Democratic nominee for NYC mayor has put Democrats in a tough spot

Photo taken by the author in Manhattan

Populism can come in many forms. It claims to represent the interests and voices of “the average citizen” in the fight against elites or oppressors. These movements, whether on the right or left, pit “the people” against “the elites.” But they come with real political risks that New York City may soon realize.

Zohran Mamdani recently won the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. He prevailed on a populist platform that pitted average New Yorkers against big business, capitalists, and the rich. Mamdani promised things like free busing, free childcare, and even government-run grocery stores where food deserts currently exist across the five boroughs.

As a New Yorker who has lived in Manhattan for over 11 years, many of these ideas sound great in theory. The city struggles to accommodate families with young children like mine. Public transportation needs improvement and some neighborhoods lack quality and affordable grocery store options.

Housing is also a major issue, as it is across many big American cities, and Mamdani has a plan to fix it in New York City. He wants to freeze rents immediately on rent stabilized housing units. He wants to add more affordable housing and fast track development plans that include a larger number of those units.

All of this sounds great in theory. Who wouldn’t want free stuff and cheaper housing?

But what it has in theory it lacks in pragmatism. Most of these ideas will never happen for practical reasons, and if some of them do, they threaten to distort markets and bring unintended economic consequences that could compromise New York City’s position as one of the economic powerhouses of the world.

How New York City elected Zohran Mamdani as the Democratic nominee for mayor

Before we dig deeper and analyze Mamdani’s policies, it’s important to remember how a Democratic socialist even had the opportunity to shift New York City to the left. Current Mayor Eric Adams is relatively unaccomplished and his mayorship has been mired in scandal and allegations of corruption. Prior to his indictment for allegedly taking bribes from Turkish embassy employees, two of his signature accomplishments were requiring lids on garbage cans and hiring a Rat Czar (the rats are still winning).

Adams’ indictment was (maybe not so coincidentally) quashed after he vocally supported President Donald Trump’s immigration and deportation crackdown in New York City. Needless to say, many New Yorkers were so over him that Adams decided not to run in the Democratic mayoral primary. In one of my favorite interviews, when asked for one word to describe 2023, Adams provided two words, “New York”, before going into the most insanely gibberish answer.

Adams’ decision not to run in the Democratic primary left a power vacuum that former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo happily leaped into. He probably thought enough time had passed since resigning the governorship in disgrace amidst sexual harassment allegations from over 10 women.

But many New Yorkers did not forget. And when Mamdani pounded Cuomo in the debates on this fact, in addition to how he subpoenaed many of their gynecological records, it was all over. The lane was clear for Mamdani to take the Democratic ticket as the other candidates simply lacked name recognition, charisma, compelling policy ideas, or some combination of all three.

Mamdani swerved into this lane hard, attaching the Democrat’s trailer to his campaign truck that made one left turn after the next. His social media campaign was elite. Mamdani dove into the freezing cold waters of the Atlantic Ocean on New Year’s Day to announce that he was freezing the rents. He talked about the plight of bodegas, food trucks, and grocery stores. He spoke about real world problems that affect average New Yorkers.

I often go to the Union Square Farmer’s Market and Mamdani’s guys were always there happy to chat. Cuomo, by contrast, hid from the public and media for most of the campaign until it became clear towards the end that Mamdani might actually win it. He clearly underestimated the Mamdani campaign’s strength.

A great campaign does not always translate to great governing

While campaigns can run on vibes and emotional appeal, real world governing is something far different. It’s what the first Trump administration discovered when they initially tried to to enforce its “Muslim Ban.” Only for one court after the next to strike it down until Trump’s team drafted a constitutionally valid version. It’s something Trump still struggles to realize with his border wall across all of Mexico (Mexico still hasn’t paid for it).

This type of populist messaging on the right often wades into the deep waters of culture wars. These issues energize Trump’s MAGA base. They pit his core supporters, who are mostly white, non-college educated, men against Muslim and Latin American immigrants.

In the end, it doesn’t even matter if some of these policies — like the border wall — are effective because the message alone serves its purpose. Trump’s base knows what he’s fighting for based on his rhetoric. And if he fails to achieve results, they’re happy to “blame the libs.”

Similarly, Mamdani’s campaign uses populist messaging — albeit of an entirely different variety that targets economic inequality and capitalism — without concern for reality. His ideas to implement and operate government-run grocery stores and increase taxes on New York City’s rich are unlikely to happen, but like Trump’s border wall, that doesn’t really matter. The ideas are bold and play well on social media, while signaling to Mamdani’s far left voting base that he’s fighting for average New Yorkers against the rich elite.

What Mamdani doesn’t emphasize is that taxing rich New Yorkers requires approval from the state government, which is unlikely to happen. Mamdani had multiple years as an assemblyman to build a coalition and make it happen, but he didn’t.

Why should we think he will be more successful at raising taxes as New York City mayor? Especially when Governor Kathy Hochul refuses to back his taxing ideas and is up for reelection herself in 2026.

Government-owned and operated grocery stores are likely a fool’s errand as well. Grocery stores operate on razor thin margins as it is. Adding the government to the mix — even if it’s only a few stores — would likely distort markets and produce unintended economic consequences (shortages, price spikes, etc.).

It would be one thing if America and New York City in particular had significant experience with government-run grocery stores as they do in China, but we don’t. It’s unrealistic to expect new government stores to develop complex supply chains, efficiently manage retail locations, and provide quality customer service. We cannot even efficiently run the Department of Motor Vehicles or the Post Office in America.

But Mamdani, who has no retail or business experience, thinks he can make government-run grocery stores work in New York City?

Again, this is likely pure populist rhetoric without concern for reality, with the goal of aligning average people against big business interests. It will likely only increase political polarization while not living up to promised results. Detrimental effects could follow, not only for New Yorkers if Mamdani becomes mayor, but for the broader Democratic Party as well.

The potential consequences of Mamdani pushing Democrats further left

Zohran Mamdani’s success should surprise nobody. Six months after Trump’s inauguration, it’s not surprising that the left has promoted someone who champions its version of populism. But as with Trump, populism carries significant risks. And as we have witnessed with the Republican Party, populism can conquer a party’s platform and create a cult of personality in the process.

Populists on the left argue that the Democrats are too willing to compromise with Republicans; they argue that Democrats are too centrist and appease too many independent voters. The Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party has wanted to pull Democrats further left with their own version of populism that reconstructs capitalism with an egalitarian and government-centric makeover.

While this may play well during a Democratic primary in New York City, where it’s easier for the more politically attentive and loudest voices to prevail, it will not play well in swing states like Pennsylvania or Arizona. Aside from Mamdani’s questionable economic policies that we analyzed above, the Democratic socialism platform plays right into one of the main issues Trump won all swing states on in 2024: immigration and disorder.

Mamdani was previously a strong vocal supporter of defunding the police in New York City. Past tweets of his go far beyond simply calling for reforms. He wanted to completely dismantle and defund the NYPD. Although he has since softened his tone and called for keeping the NYPD budget flat while hiring more mental health experts, perception is everything.

If Mamdani is perceived as deemphasizing the risks of disorder, any crime in New York City will be pinned on him by Trump and MAGA Republicans. Whether Mamdani’s policies are responsible for the crime or not. Voters nationwide will see someone who at one point didn’t take disorder risks seriously.

Trump and MAGA Republicans have already demonstrated that this strategy works. Even when crime data is not on their side, highlighting a singular death at the hands of an illegal immigrant was a consistently effective refrain that won them votes. You can guarantee a similar strategy will be used against Mamdani should any violence occur in New York City if he becomes mayor.

So if national Democrats adopt the populist Mamdani approach in response to Trump’s populism, they risk fighting one extreme with another. In a country where a growing number of voters identify as independent, this is unlikely to be a wise long term strategy. Almost every successful President from the past three decades has governed from the middle. Whether it was Bill Clinton balancing the budget and actually achieving a surplus, or Barack Obama compromising on the Affordable Care Act to get it passed, success in government doesn’t often come from the extremes.

While it may be tempting to go the Mamdani route of Democratic socialist populism given the hype surrounding his candidacy, Democrats must keep the long game in mind. If they want to bolster democratic institutions that are constantly under threat from the far right or find fairer ways to improve capitalism in America, their best bets are policies that attract independent voters, not Bernie bros.

And none of this has even addressed one of the biggest elephants in the room — Mamdani’s historic sympathizing with antisemitic strains of the far left. Mamdani even recorded a hip hop song that praised Islamic extremists while acting indifferently towards the use of inflammatory phrases like “globalize the intifada.”

If Democrats are going to regain power in cities not named New York, Seattle, or San Francisco, they must attract more independent voters that they lost to Donald Trump. This won’t be done through government-run grocery stores or driving the rich tax bases and business interests out of blue cities. It will be done with more nuanced and thoughtful policies that assess issues critically, not at their extremes.

Populism may be tempting. It may seem like the instant gratification response to Trump and MAGA. But it would ignore the pragmatic reality of those responses, while further polarizing anyone who may be sympathetic to liberal causes in the process.