If Kamala Harris Loses, These Are the 3 Main Reasons Why
If Kamala Harris Loses, These Are the 3 Main Reasons Why
She must make the final days count and address all 3 issues
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The 2024 U.S. Election is nearing the finish line at a dead heat. While Kamala Harris may be leading in most national polls, she’s either tied or slightly trailing in individual swing states. I know, polls don’t vote, and I still don’t know anyone who’s ever responded to a poll, but most anecdotal evidence supports a very tight race.
In fact, three election stories largely explain why Harris is struggling to maintain the polling advantage she enjoyed against Trump shortly after her nomination. They are indicative of a changing electorate and a possible fracturing of the Democratic Party. Each story on its own could be enough to sway the election in Trump’s favor, with strong outcomes in all three likely leading to a decisive Trump victory.
Story 1: Kamala Harris has struggled to embrace and/or distance herself from Biden
Harris has been indecisive here—embrace the Biden administration record or run from it? She’s spent most of the past couple of months waffling somewhere in the middle, which does not inspire much confidence in independent voters.
When asked on The View what she would have done differently from President Biden she answered, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”
The other night during a CNN Town Hall she said:
“My administration will not be a continuation of the Biden administration. I bring to this role my own ideas and my own experience. I represent a new generation of leadership on a number of issues and believe that we have to actually take new approaches.”
David Axelrod, formerly of the Obama administration, described Harris’s non-answer approach as a “word salad city.” He’s right.
It’s often unclear who Kamala Harris is trying to be. Joe Biden 2.0? Kamala Harris 1.0? Somewhere in between?
Kamala Harris has not defined herself well vis-à-vis President Biden. She clearly doesn’t want to answer this question, so she gives word salads of nonresponses hoping to evade it.
This could really hurt her with voters who are frustrated or upset by certain Biden administration policies. Harris may not want to trash her current boss, but she should have done a better job at distinguishing herself on issues Biden struggled with (inflation, border, Gaza, Afghanistan withdrawal, etc.) while highlighting similarities on issues Biden thrived on (CHIPS Act, lowering inflation, great stock market, lowest unemployment in history, etc.).
This indecisive approach from Harris may cost her votes.
Story 2: Kamala Harris and the uncommitted voter enraged by Israel and Gaza
One group of particularly enraged voters is on the left—a group of uncommitted voters who refuse to vote for anyone who will continue the Biden administration’s policy in Gaza. If you want to see how enraged these folks are, simply read the comments in one of my Threads.
Harris was initially silent upon accepting the Democratic nomination about how she would approach the devasting situation in Gaza and the Middle East. Eventually, she made clear that she supports Israel and will not change the Biden administration’s approach to defending an ally while guaranteeing Palestinians “dignity” and “security.”
This last part is the controversial one. A growing number on the left view Israel’s actions as genocide. While I’ve written about how this is mistaken, they’re genuine in their beliefs. For this group, the fact Harris does not support their viewpoint is akin to betrayal.
As a result, many voters on the left are either sitting this election out, voting “uncommitted”, or voting for Donald Trump. Even though Trump promises to be way more extreme in his support of Israel, some of these folks simply want change. They’ve selectively ignored the fact that Trump has used “Palestinian” as a slur and criticized Biden during their one debate for not letting Israel’s military “finish the job” in Gaza.
Regardless of voter sentiment toward Trump, the sentiment of many towards Harris is clear. Some are enraged that she does not view this tragedy the same way as they do—genocide. So they won’t support her.
This could hand states like Michigan—with its large Arab population—to Trump on a silver platter. And with Trump’s Electoral College advantage, Harris needs every swing state she can get.
Story 3: Kamala Harris and the elusive young male voter
I have written at length this election cycle about another group that Harris and Democrats are losing—young men. Donald Trump has hit the podcast circuit hard to reach these guys and it’s worked. Polls suggest he’s significantly reduced the sizeable advantage Biden enjoyed with this demographic in 2020.
Kamala Harris has not done enough to speak and appeal to young men. She only started doing more media in the past couple of weeks, and she hasn’t done any of the big podcasts that cater to young men—Joe Rogan, Andrew Schultz, Theo Von, Lex Fridman, etc.
Donald Trump appeared on all of these podcasts.
Many young men are going through tough times. People experiencing struggle are more likely to vote to change their situations. Voting Republican is viewed now as more anti-establishment, cool, and punk rock for many of these young guys.
I tried to appeal to them myself, but I’m not Kamala Harris:
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Harris missed major opportunities to reach young men during this election cycle. She has a great message for them with her opportunity economy that includes assistance for down payments on first homes and support for entrepreneurs. But they will never hear those positive aspects of Harris if she doesn’t meet them where they hang out.
Instead, many young men are left with a filtered and biased view of Harris as fed to them from their podcaster of choice (many of whom lean conservative).
Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me if the young men demographic in America hurt Harris’s election odds on November 5th.
3 tough stories for Kamala Harris to overcome
In the final days of this election cycle, Harris must address all three stories head-on if she’s going to have any chance of beating Donald Trump. It starts with being clear on how she is similar to and different from her predecessor and current boss, Joe Biden. Why would an undecided voter cast a vote for Harris if they’re unclear what to expect?
The Gaza issue is more complicated. A certain segment of the far left is convinced there’s a genocide going on in Gaza despite the many factors that suggest there isn’t. The international community has not helped in this regard, with plenty of anti-Israel sentiment and antisemitism bubbling to the surface after October 7th.
Kamala Harris may not be able to thread the needle of these extremes. Other Democrats tried to embrace the genocide accusers and they lost elections decisively (just ask Jamaal Bowman). Extremism doesn’t sell to the general public.
All Harris can probably do on this issue is highlight the far worse calamity Trump plans to inflict on the people of Gaza. She must differentiate her foreign policy from his on this issue and hope it collects enough “uncommitted” or undecided votes.
Similar to Gaza, with young men it may also be too late. Reading some of the comments to the video I posted above is pretty concerning for the state of the male voter (of any age) in America (although I’m sure many of the comments were bots).
Regardless, if I’m looking at this race objectively as it stands today, I think Kamala Harris has an uphill climb to November 5th. She needs to make every final day, hour, and second count as she tries to court any undecided voter in the three stories I provided.
The future of American democracy awaits.