In 2024, We Must Attack Autocracy
Democracy is not guaranteed
Politicians love to characterize every election year as the most important ever. “Elect me or chaos will ensue.” In 2024, however, I genuinely believe that characterization is warranted. Strongmen are on the rise and in 2024 we must attack autocracy at every turn.
Countries with over half the world’s population will hold national elections in 2024, including India, Britain, and the United States. Russia also has a presidential election, although with Vladimir Putin’s unchecked silencing of dissidents (see Alexey Navalny, currently in a penal colony near the Arctic Circle), don’t expect it to be fair and free.
In 2024, we cannot expect democracy to be fair and free in other countries either. Narendra Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism in India has hammered the core institutions of Indian democracy. Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister, has used the same toxic rhetoric towards migrants as his far-right peers that seek to undermine democracy. And please hold before we dive further into Trump who has accused immigrants to America of “poisoning the blood of our country.”
The global stage is set for democratic decay in 2024. This is why our most existential risk in 2024 is not climate change, nuclear war, or any other catastrophe. The near and present danger is autocracy. Everywhere.
We will be at greater risk of climate catastrophe and war if we cannot figure out how to preserve and improve global democracy in 2024 and beyond.
It starts with “attacking” autocracy
I use the word “attack” intentionally. Credit to Rick Wilson, a co-founder of the Lincoln Project, who articulated why here:
You’ll notice I said “always attack,” not “always communicate,” or “always respond,” or “always wait for the bad guys to bash your skull in with a tire iron before issuing a vaguely condemnatory press release” in the title of this section.
It’s not enough to simply denounce things autocrats say. Even when aspiring autocrats like Donald Trump say they want to be “dictator for a day”, we must go on the offensive. It’s not enough to rebut the statements, hear responses like “he’s not being serious” or “you know how he is, he won’t actually do it”, and then move on with life.
That’s how January 6th happens. That’s how a coordinated campaign to install fake electors to steal a Presidential election happens. That’s how democracy dies.
Instead, we must attack autocracy through writing, short-form videos, lobbying local Congressmen and Senators, and focusing on local politics.
Beating back autocracy is like playing an advanced game of Whac-A-Mole. The moles don’t disappear until we beat them back with the hammer of democracy.
It starts at the local level.
All politics is local and autocracy starts there first
Few national elections drastically change people’s everyday lives. But raise their property taxes, change zoning laws, or ban books in public schools, and life in the neighborhood can change significantly.
Yet few people pay attention to local politics. The national spectacle gets all of the attention because it has the most media coverage. Many local newspapers are gone.
“An average of 2.5 newspapers closed each week in 2023 compared to two a week the previous year. . . .” - AP
So unless you’re one of the few Americans who hunt down local news stories, you’re probably barely aware of what’s going on politically in your community. But if a political group does a good job canvassing the neighborhood and campaigning on issues that directly impact you, they’ll likely win.
A historical example: during the 1982 elections, former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill introduced a $1 billion jobs bill that was opposed by House Republican Leader Robert H. Michel of Peoria, Illinois. What did O’Neill do? He showed up in Peoria and demonstrated how so many of the infrastructure problems there would be fixed by the bill. He hit Michel right where he lived. Locally.
Michel didn’t lose the 1982 election, but it was much closer than it should have been for one of the most powerful Republicans in America. Ronald Reagan himself had to travel to Peoria to campaign for him.
In the years since, Republicans have done an incredible job campaigning at the local level. While Democrats were off winning national elections during the Obama years, Republicans were slowly, but steadily, winning at the local and state levels. After the 2022 midterms, Republicans controlled governorships 26 to 24 (Democrats), state senates 29 to 20 (with 1 coalition government), and state houses 28 to 20 (also with 1 coalition government).
Bottom line: Republicans still dominate at the local level, giving them a significant advantage during campaign season when they already have party loyalists installed in a majority of areas. Following the Trump years, many of those Republicans have either turned full MAGA or they’re at least willing to excuse many of Trump’s and his supporter’s actions.
This level of party loyalty - in a party clearly controlled by one personality (Trump) - is a litmus test for anyone even at the state or local level. As Trump has escalated his dictator rhetoric, there are fewer Republicans at these lower levels willing to check or challenge what he says. In effect, it insulates Trump. Protects him.
Which is how autocracy catches fire in a society. And which is why this local barrier of protection that empowers Trump (and votes in the electoral college!) should be the first target in attacking autocracy. The key is how this is done.
Democrats cannot talk down to people - they must illustrate the problems and present solutions
I recently had an illuminating discussion with someone on Threads. You know, the type that basically doesn’t exist on Twitter/X anymore - civil and nuanced. This is how the poster responded after I said we needed to “make it clearer” to Hispanics who voted for Trump that he’s simply using them as pawns while passing bigoted policies.
She’s right. The condescending tone has been used for too long by city people (guilty as charged) and honestly, Democrats. A big reason why Hillary lost in 2016 was not only because she was wildly disliked, but because she was condescending to anyone who even considered voting for Trump. Calling his potential voters “deplorables” was almost impossible to walk back.
So in “attacking” autocracy, we cannot be condescending. We cannot talk down to people and make them feel less intelligent, less informed, or less educated. Oftentimes, the people doing the talking down don’t even know what they’re talking about.
A big part of this type of attack - courting independent and Republican voters - involves listening. What do potential Trump voters see as the big problems? Why do they think Trump has all of the answers? Why are they willing to let him be dictator for a day in order to solve these problems? Are they concerned this could lead to a larger dictatorship given not only his rhetoric but his actions on and around January 6th?
We have to engage with one another. It’s easy to live in an echo chamber with everyone that agrees with their peers. It’s far harder to post critiques of Republicans on Tik Tok or YouTube and watch the hateful comments pour in. I know because I post on both platforms (and Instagram) regularly.
What I’ve found, however, is that even the most hateful of comments can often be deescalated by asking simple questions about what the commenter thinks the problem actually is. This isn’t about winning debates or changing opinions with a few words. That’s not realistic. But it does make the person who disagrees with you respond and consider (even for a fraction of a second) what you said. It plants the seed.
One day that seed may blossom into something greater. Although it very well may not, of course. But I cannot rule out hope and optimism that most people are seeking a better life not only for themselves, but for their loved ones, neighbors, and friends too. The more we can empathize and listen to those we disagree with (and try to learn from them!), the closer we can get to ending the polarization problem in America and the world.
At this point it’s existential
Democracy or autocracy? The path that America has forged for the world since 1945 or the path that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea want everyone to follow?
Some may say it’s hyperbolic to categorize Trump and Trump supporters with those countries. But he praises them, aspires to be a dictator, tries to rewrite the history of his attempted coup on January 6th, and has an overall disdain for the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law if the checks and balances slow down his agenda.
Trump is more like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, the Ayatollah, and Kim Jong Un than any democratic leader in the world today.
We must “attack” autocracy in every sense of the verb. It is not enough to communicate, respond, rebut, or refute. We all must go on the offensive in 2024. I hope you’ll follow along and join me.