Shutdowns and Shadow Dockets
Who's to blame for shutdowns; a baseball escape; and the dangerously secretive nature of the SCOTUS shadow docket
In today’s newsletter you’ll find the following:
Government shutdown thoughts
MLB playoff thoughts (see related essay here)
An essay for paid subscribers on the Supreme Court’s Shadow Docket and why it should concern all of us more (will also be posted to Medium, if you’re a paid subscriber there).
Who’s to blame for a government shutdown?
As you may have read in the news, President Trump wants Congress to pass a clean continuing resolution to keep the government open through November. The House has already passed it, but Senate Democrats are refusing (as of this writing) to break a filibuster so the bill moves to Trump’s desk.
It’s easy for Trump, JD Vance, and others in Republican leadership to point the finger at Democrats — after all, Democrats are technically holding up government funding and forcing a shutdown. But could Republicans ultimately face the majority of the blame? What determines victory in a government shutdown?
A clear, consistent message.
Which the Democrats do not have.
I’m sorry, but the “strongly worded letters” that Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have been sending are not enough. The attempts to make this about healthcare costs and medicaid cuts (previously issues Democrats dominated) are simply not enough.
I get that Democrats want to use any amount of leverage they can to counteract some of the awful effects the Big Beautiful Bill will have on working people and many folks in need of Medicaid, but this is not how you play it politically.
If I had been the Democrats, I would have started the messaging about this shutdown far earlier. Around the time the Big Beautiful Bill was passed (July 4, 2025). I would have highlighted - as I did at the time (see Thread below) - the awful impact it would have for our future.
I would have hit social media and Republicans in the immediate days preceding and following the Big Beautiful Bill’s passage on July 4, 2025, explaining that voters did not want higher deficits and cuts to Medicaid.
And how the Big Beautiful Bill was a win for business elites and the ultra-wealthy while being a loss for working families.
And how the Democrats are not going to pass a continuing resolution in November to keep the government open if the Big Beautiful Bill passed as is.
Democrats did nothing of that sort. They wrote some “strongly worded letters” but had no orchestrated social media or news campaign to counteract the narrative around the Big Beautiful Bill. They were not consistent throughout the summer as Trump made one authoritarian move after the next (and has barely been punished in the polls).
So the Democrats have little standing here. They are in a weak position with no overriding message to win a government shutdown debate. Their efforts to date have been too little and too late.
While I would recommend them to not engage in government shutdown efforts, I would advise better social media campaigning. Get Gavin Newsom’s team to train the entire DNC on how to communicate in 2025 (i.e., using Trump’s tactics against him).
We need more Cory Booker record-setting filibuster speeches. We need more displays of civil disobedience. We need more actions that capture attention (i.e., the currency of this era).
As someone who has written for years online, I can attest to one truth — strongly worded letters receive almost no eyeballs.
It’s baseball playoff time
As a follow-up to my essay from last week about the M’s clinching their first AL West division title, I made this video. Hope you enjoy.
Prediction? I think the M’s could make the World Series. I’m not jinxing it and saying they will, but this is the strongest team I have seen since 2001 (the last time the Mariners went deeper into the playoffs).
The Phillies look the strongest to me in the National League for a deep postseason run. So my ultimate prediction?
Mariners over Phillies in 7 games.
Wild card games start this afternoon!
The Supreme Court’s Shadow Docket Should Trouble Us More
Imagine if your favorite sports team stopped practicing, skipped film study, and just showed up on game night with the message — “We win because we say so.” No play-by-play, no highlights, no postgame breakdown. Just the scoreboard.
That’s basically where the Supreme Court is drifting with its shadow docket. Instead of lengthy legal briefs packed with reasoning and precedent, or oral arguments building to a careful decision, we’re getting what I’d call text-message jurisprudence:
“Order granted. No explanation.”
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