What the Soviet Union’s Afghanistan Failure Reveals About Putin’s War Machine

The latest Russian incursions into NATO territory weren't accidents—they illustrate Russia’s need for endless war

Soviet Union troops withdrawing from Afghanistan; Wikimedia Commons

In today’s newsletter we’re analyzing Putin’s motives for continuing the war in Ukraine, assessing it from a perspective few have taken — Russia’s economic motives in the context of history. A free preview of that essay is below, while the entire piece is reserved for paid subscribers (it will go live on Medium Sunday morning eastern time).

On a lighter (and doughier) note, I celebrated the bagel this week with a full YouTube video, podcast (where I dig deep into the bagel’s NYC history), Medium essay, and blog post (with my ranking of best bagels in NYC). Check them out and let me know what your favorite culinary staple is that reminds you of home.

Now onto this week’s essay.

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About a month ago, Russia flew drones deep into Polish airspace. President Trump said it “could have been a mistake”, but have you ever driven 100 miles in the wrong direction?

Nobody loses 19 drones, some of which flew over 100 miles into Poland, by mistake. The story faded quickly in the U.S., as domestic headlines — like the assassination of Charlie Kirk — took over. But we must not treat this incursion as an isolated event because it reveals a deeper reality for the Russian economy.

Russia must keep its war machine running or risk economic and political collapse.

This was a lesson learned from the Soviet Union’s failed invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Once that war stopped and Russian troops returned home to an economy that was built for war and not for them, the Soviet Union slowly collapsed.

Putin knows that his Russia faces a similar fate if he ever turns off his war machine. The war has made “heroes” of many Russian men who previously had few economic prospects prior to the war in Ukraine. The Russian economy had been suffering under the weight of COVID-19 and unrest was spreading.

But Russia has largely unified through a common cause since the 2022 invasion. Many feel national pride against the perceived Ukrainian “puppet of the West”, whom they’re convinced is intent on destroying Russia. That makes Putin’s next move all but predictable.

Attack other countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. NATO be damned. Putin does not want to suffer the Soviet Union’s fate following its failed war in Afghanistan. So he must keep his economy calibrated for war.

Which is why last month’s incursion into Poland should be read not as a mistake, but as a warning.

Poland was no accident.

To understand why, we must revisit what happened the last time Russia brought thousands of men back from a failed foreign war.