Why Moldova Is Next for Vladimir Putin
Why Moldova Is Next for Vladimir Putin
Ukraine 2.0
Vladimir Putin is employing the same strategy in Moldova as he did in Ukraine. The same strategy that ultimately led to the annexation of Crimea and a full-scale invasion. There’s reason to believe his recent moves, including revoking a decree recognizing Moldova’s independence, are more than mere distractions with the hope of diverting attention from Ukraine.
There are strategic advantages for Putin should he gain control over Moldova and its eastern region of Transnistria. Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since 1992. Their presence has been a foreboding reminder of Soviet occupation and the threat it poses to the immediate future, especially given Putin’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
All of which leads me to ask Putin’s appeasers and the westerners who argue that we should not be supporting Ukraine – how can you be confident that Putin will adhere to any peace treaty with Ukraine and not invade or attempt to annex Moldova, or at the very least, Transnistria?
Given Putin’s long history of attacking his neighbors, from Chechnya and Georgia to Ukraine, what makes you think this time is different?
What makes you think he will ever stop until he has destroyed the western world order?
The writing is on the wall for Moldova. As explained below, it’s the next phase in Putin’s ultimate plan to realize the power of the old Soviet Union. Not in a union of communist republics, but one of autocratic states with Russia at its fascist core.
Transnistria is geopolitically similar to the Donbas in eastern Ukraine
Similar to the Donbas in 2014, there’s currently a small group of pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria. They are supported by the Kremlin and are largely in control of this breakaway region of Moldova, which is not internationally recognized.
In addition to political ties to Moscow, Transnistria has strong economic ties. It gets cheap Russian gas compared to the rest of Moldova, which Russia has threatened to cut off. Ideally, Putin would want to maintain complete political and economic control over Moldova. It’s the same goal he has with Ukraine. Political control and petro-dollars.
But like Ukraine, Moldova poses a geopolitical threat to Putin. It’s an aspiring western-style democracy. Moldova’s current government wants closer ties with the European Union and NATO.
And who can blame them?
With a nuclear saber-rattling dictator making war with their neighbor to the east, the choice is either cede sovereignty to the strongman or seek alliances for protection. Of course, Putin sympathizers will argue that the West somehow provoked an invasion of Moldova despite the fact Moldova understandably fears for its sovereignty in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
Blaming NATO, however, is too easy of a throwaway argument for many people.
Transnistria and Moldova are geopolitically important to Putin given the shared border with Ukraine and the buffer zone it provides to the West. With Transnistria already housing Russian troops and separatists, it’s an easy risk calculation for Putin. He will use Transnistria to access the rest of Moldova, just as he did with Crimea and the Donbas when eventually invading the rest of Ukraine.
But first, Putin wants to further destabilize domestic politics in Moldova. He already tried this by supporting an attempted coup.
Putin supported a coup attempt in Moldova
Moldova is currently politically vulnerable. Just as Ukraine was in 2014. And Putin is a master at exploiting precarious political situations.
It should come as no surprise that multiple reports indicate the Kremlin supported a coup plot to take over government buildings in Chisinau, the Moldovan capital. Multiple individuals with military training from Russian-friendly countries like Belarus were recruited to execute the plot. Although the reports have not been independently confirmed, Putin immediately revoked a decree recognizing Moldova’s sovereignty immediately after Moldovan President Maia Sandu publicly exposed the plot.
Putin’s actions should be interpreted as an admission. His Kremlin-backed coup attempt was thwarted, so he tried to do the next best thing — threaten Moldova’s sovereignty with paper and words.
As in Ukraine, Putin is trying to use internal struggles in Moldova against their government. From corruption to higher energy prices, Putin wants to enrage the populace to its boiling point. He wants to appear like their one and only savior. He wants to point them to the lower energy prices in the neighboring region of Transnistria.
The only concession Moldova would have to make is its own sovereignty. It would have to agree to become a vassal state to Russia. Similar to Belarus. Similar to what Putin is trying to create in Ukraine if he gets his way.
This is why none of this was ever about NATO aggression or undue western influence. It was always about democratic threats on Putin’s autocratic doorstep. Democracy and everything that comes with it - free speech, free press, an independent judiciary, private property rights, the rule of law - all pose existential threats to Putin’s rule. The more countries like Moldova or Ukraine build and enhance democratic institutions of their own, the more easily they can counter Putin and Russia.
Moldova presents significant strategic advantages for Putin in his war against Ukraine
Moldova shares over 1,000 kilometers of its eastern border with Ukraine. It represents a potential western front in Putin’s war there. It would give him easier access to key Ukrainian port cities like Odesa, which Putin failed to take earlier in the conflict.
In addition, Moldova would give Putin a direct land bridge to many other states in Russia’s sphere of influence. From Romania to Bulgaria, by taking Moldova, the entire Black Sea region would open up for Putin.
Currently, Moldova is not a member of NATO. So Putin would likely weigh that crucial fact in his overall risk calculation of what the likely western response would be. Given the many western sympathizers who entertain his NATO provocation arguments regarding Ukraine, Putin may try to use those same justifications to invade Moldova.
Putin will invade Moldova, try to blame the West, and hope that Western appeasers continue to support him
This is the strategy I predict will happen, especially if Ukraine has a strong counteroffensive this spring and Putin decides he needs to escalate. Unfortunately, many useful idiots in the West will probably allow Putin to continue using baseless NATO provocation justifications.
It’s like Trump saying he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and get away with it. No matter what Putin and Trump do, in the eyes of many, they can never do anything wrong.
I hope the West and the world, however, take the threat to Moldova seriously. As President Maia Sandu did in exposing the Kremlin-back coup plot, intelligence agencies should declassify as much as possible to give the Kremlin public notice. There also needs to be clear and severe consequences for any further escalation of Russian aggression.
Banning Russian citizens from democracies around the world should be on the table. Citizens of Russia should not be afforded the right to enjoy the fruits of democracy if they are unwilling to protest and fight for it at home.
Sanctions should be considered against other countries who prop up the Kremlin regime. Or at a minimum, diplomacy should be used to separate India and China, in particular, from Russia. They are currently giving Putin’s regime too much of a lifeline by buying Russian gas.
Unless the West and the world take more decisive action to protect Moldova, it may be facing Ukraine 2.0. And soon.
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