With Apologies to Canada, Mexico, and the Democratic World

You can't rely on America anymore

The Greater Trump United States; Wikimedia Commons

As I write this, President Donald Trump is already claiming victory in his tariff standoff with Mexico. Canada is likely next. And then maybe China.

It’s all theater.

Mexico agreed to place more troops on its border with the U.S. following Trump’s announcement (i.e., threat) that he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Many folks have forgotten a similar deal with Mexico back in 2019 (during Trump 1.0). That deal achieved next to nothing in terms of slowing the fentanyl trade or wave of migrants from Mexico.

It was all performance art. The mission was never to fix the problem, but instead to declare an easy victory. “Look what we made Mexico do!”

Trump 2.0 is more governance by chaos. The goal is to “flood the zone” (as Steve Bannon once said) and enrage every non-red hat-wearing or red pill-popping MAGA both in America and around the world.

Don’t fall for it.

Instead of paying close attention to Trump’s rhetoric and every word, watch his actions. Yes, he may have imposed tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada, but significant pressure would have mounted against him as those tariffs went into effect.

The stock market was in freefall before the latest Mexico “deal” was announced. Trump’s own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has even written in the past about how tariffs would be inflationary and would strengthen the dollar. Bessent even noted in an investor letter almost exactly a year ago that this was “hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.”

My question to Canada and Mexico — why not let Trump’s tariffs play out? Why not force Americans to pay more for lumber from Canada (ah, home prices!) or avocados and fruit from Mexico?

If Trump voters were so concerned with the price of eggs and the effects of inflation, why not force Americans to experience the inflationary effects of tariffs? You can even cite Scott Bessent!

Force Trump to act instead of simply lobbing threats about tariffs, Greenland, and the Panama Canal Zone. Otherwise, these theatrical performances by Trump will continue and he will only feel further emboldened by anyone who negotiates or entertains his threats (i.e., shows weakness).

Let’s examine the typical Trump negotiating tactics when it comes to foreign policy and conclude on a more somber but harsh reality — the democratic world cannot rely on America anymore.

A theatrical performance called: “Tariffs”

Here’s the standard Trumpian playbook when he wants to look tough or declare easy “wins” on the world stage. We’ll examine it from the playbill of the latest performance he directed called “Tariffs.”

1. Donald Trump makes some crazy threat, oftentimes around 2 AM (although his tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, and China arrived at 5:44 PM Friday evening)

2. Everyone debates online and in newsrooms around the world: “Will he actually do it?” (engagement on social media over the weekend was crazy about tariffs)

3. Volatility sweeps markets globally (Monday morning trading see-sawed)

4. An 11th-hour deal is reached (Trump already agreed with Mexico’s President for additional troops on Mexico’s border and he’s in talks with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as of this writing)

5. The threat is delayed (the Trump-Mexico deal pauses tariffs for one month)

6. Financial markets rebound (news of a deal on Mexico tariffs helped calm markets)

7. Trump declares a win (he’s already done so on tariffs)

The more countries engage with Trump’s threats and enter into 11th-hour deals, the more this cycle will continue. When dealing with a bully, the only way to deter future threats is to use strength. Force. Action.

Mexico and Canada were on the right track here when they announced retaliatory tariffs, but since Mexico entered into this last-minute deal with Trump, they’ve played right into his hands. He feels victorious. It will likely embolden him to act with more aggression in the future.

This can only lead to one conclusion for Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the democratic world — you cannot rely on America anymore.

America is once again the ghost at the feast

I reviewed a book not that long ago called The Ghost at the Feast by Robert Kagan. The book covers the years from 1900 to 1941 and makes a compelling argument that America could have prevented the spread of fascist tyranny that sparked World War II had it not strived for neutrality and bliss in its peaceful corner of the western hemisphere.

This relates to Trump’s current trade war incitement because America is once again isolating itself from the world. While Trump threatens America’s closest allies and trading partners in Canada and Mexico, and even suggests that the U.K. and the European Union are next, America’s adversaries cheer.

A more fractured world helps Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. A weakened NATO and an ununified alliance amongst democratic nations - of which America has acted as the anchor since 1945 - will incentivize more aggressive action from autocrats globally. Ukraine, other former Soviet Republics, and Taiwan should all feel uneasy about what’s happening here.

What Trump may be missing or at least taking for granted is the peace that has endured along America’s borders for over a century. It’s incredibly rare across history and even most of the world today. So much of America’s success can be attributed not only to the two massive oceans that keep her safe but also to friendly neighborly relations with Canada and Mexico.

But Trump decided to compromise all of that by inciting what the Wall Street Journal called the “Dumbest Trade War.” It makes little to no sense when looking at it objectively:

1. Migrant encounters at Mexican border are down to pre-pandemic levels

2. Overdose deaths are down 22% in the U.S. from August 2023 - August 2024

3. Imports from Canada, Mexico, and China account for $1.1 trillion annually and amount to 40% of all U.S. imports

In short, there were no growing concerns about immigration or the drug trade to antagonize allies and incite China. Trump simply wanted to flex his foreign policy muscles and score easy points with his supporters without having to actually do the hard work of fixing anything.

America’s allies should expect more of the same. Remember, this is coming from the same guy who has even threatened to send American troops to Mexico. Pretty rich coming from the same guy and political party that criticized the Biden Administration for “escalating” the war in Ukraine when it was quite clear in February 2022 who the real aggressor was.

Unfortunately, this means that America’s allies will have to take economic measures and geopolitical precautions to safeguard their countries with the expectation that America won’t be there for them. They can no longer rely on free trade with America. They can no longer guarantee that America will help deter regional foes, let alone defend them when attacked.

Scoring quick foreign policy wins is the short game for Trump. Disrupting the world order is the long game. America’s allies will need to adapt and prepare.

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On a lighter note…

I made a video about one of my favorite NATO allies and the incredible food they produce — Bulgaria. The first video below is about Bulgarian cuisine generally and the second is a recipe for one of Bulgaria’s most traditional dishes, banitsa. Give them a watch!

You can also find more fun (and lighter) content on my Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok.