Young Male Voters: The New Swing Demographic in the 2024 Election
Trump has courted them, and Harris must do it more
Young men are to the 2024 election what blue-collar workers were to the election in 2016. They promise to have a big impact on the results. The political ideology of the young men demographic has significantly shifted in the last four years, as it did for many blue-collar workers in the years ahead of the 2016 election.
This is evident in the polling. As I noted in a previous newsletter:
“In 2020, Biden won young male voters by +26 against Trump. That lead shrank to +6 just before he dropped out of the race.”
Kamala Harris has done better. But her gains with young women have been substantially higher than with young men.
Young women (ages 18-29): +22 for Biden over Trump; +47 for Harris over Trump
Young men (ages 18-29): +6 for Biden over Trump; +17 for Harris over Trump
Kamala Harris has a commanding lead over Donald Trump with young women, but she still has not reached the young men lead the Democrats enjoyed in the 2020 election. Their 26-point lead over Trump in the young men demographic is down 9 points.
So while Harris has shown remarkable improvement to Biden with young voters across the board, in an election where every vote is crucial, this swing in the young men demographic could have a major impact.
Ultimately, it will come down to turnout. Can Donald Trump inspire and mobilize enough young men to show up and vote?
While some evidence suggests that the Trump campaign is more concerned with illegal immigrants voting - despite there being no evidence that illegals will vote at all - Trump has made considerable efforts to reach young men.
Over the past few weeks and months, Trump has appeared on numerous podcasts and YouTube channels run and watched by young men. In a previous newsletter, I described his extensive efforts to “court young men” and how the Democratic Party has failed this demographic.
In 2016, Donald Trump won white working-class voters without college degrees by a margin greater than 2-to-1 (64% to 28%). He maintained that advantage in 2020, winning the demographic against Biden 65% to 33%.
Therefore, if Trump simply maintains the advantage he has with white voters who don’t have college degrees (who make up some 42% of the electorate) and makes even small gains with other demographics, he has a good chance of winning the 2024 election.
That other demographic is young men. Harris has significantly improved with that group compared to Biden (+5 under Biden to +17 under Harris), but as noted above, it’s still 9 points off from where Biden was in 2020. That’s a big gap.
And over the last four years, the lives of many young men have generally grown worse, not better.
The Wall Street Journal recently published a piece on how America’s Young Men Are Falling Even Further Behind. This follows pieces by The New York Times and writing of my own (from months ago) on the Young Men Crisis.
I won’t rehash everything in those pieces, but the point is that the gender gap is widening, and while young women have flourished overall, young men have increasingly struggled to start their adult lives.
They live at home. They don’t have careers. They don’t have romantic partners. They have higher rates of suicide and depression.
Trump senses a political opportunity. Similar to his strategy in 2016 to court working-class, non-college-educated, voters, he’s identified a demographic in freefall and wants to use it to his advantage. Just as Jordan Peterson has. Just as Andrew Tate has. Or Joe Rogan.
There’s an entire industry of male influencers who blame the system instead of themselves. Rather than taking Charlie Munger's advice to improve yourself first if you want to appear more attractive to a romantic partner, many of these influencers from the “manoverse” blame women, society, and the government for their failings.
Trump has seized on it. He’s appeared on Lex Fridman, Theo Von, the All-In Podcast, Logan Paul’s podcast, and numerous other YouTube channels and podcasts run by all-male influencers.
While I haven’t heard Trump talk about the “young men” crisis specifically, he’s showing up to the online places where young men hang out and using the same rhetoric they’re used to hearing. Blaming everyone else.
Democrats.
The Deep State.
Immigrants.
NATO.
Trump plays the strongman for these impressionable young men. For those not well-versed in history, it likely comes off as impressive.
I mean, think about it. It sounds pretty gangster that this guy has a huge rap sheet of 30+ felonies, more criminal cases in his future, and he’s been shot, but he still keeps going. As I even said, Trump impressed me when he was shot.
Of course, all of that neglects the serious dangers posed by a second Trump presidency. It ignores the uncertain foreign policy, the removal of checks and balances in the executive branch, and his promises to be a dictator, but only on day 1.
It ignores Trump’s character and fitness. His immorality and grifting nature (he’s selling “Official Trump Coins” now!).
As I challenged everyone last week:
[D]etail this objective history of Trump in writing, remove his name, and then ask yourself: would you hire this candidate for a job at your company?
If you’re honest with yourself, I doubt many of you answered this question in the affirmative.
But most young men aren’t thinking this way. They see the immediate, troubled road ahead of them. They see this billionaire come along and they could care less of his moral depravity or “threats to democracy” because he’s promising to help them here and now.
Young men today don’t have time to think about the implications to global security or geopolitics or various macroeconomic factors. They’re simply trying to start their lives.
This is why Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in particular need to speak to these men directly. If Harris-Walz wants to defeat Trump and MAGA, they need to meet these young men where they are — online. They need to go on more podcasts, YouTube channels, and TikTok accounts.
They can talk about how they plan to support small businesses and entrepreneurs. How they plan to lower costs for families. Or help Americans buy their first home.
Kamala Harris has many policies that would be attractive to younger voters, including young men, but they need the opportunity to hear them.
Deploy Tim Walz.
If anyone can talk to young men, it’s the former military man, teacher, and football coach. Send him on all the podcasts and talk shows. Anoint him as the spokesman.
If Democrats ignore this crucial voting demographic, and young men turn out in droves from Trump because their favorite podcaster or YouTuber inspired them, the Democrats will regret it for decades.
That’s assuming American democracy survives.
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