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The Iran Oil Shock Exposed Years of False Alarms
Commodity traders learned to dismiss geopolitical risk and it cost them billions
Apr 14
•
John Polonis
2
1
The American Election in Europe
If Orbán falls, the MAGA blueprint might break
Apr 11
•
John Polonis
2
4
How War Exposes What Private Credit Has Been Hiding
The Iran war will exacerbate private credit's reckoning
Apr 7
•
John Polonis
2
2
Iran Didn't Close the Strait of Hormuz. Actuaries Did.
How war risk insurance became the most powerful weapon in the Middle East
Apr 3
•
John Polonis
8
1
1
March 2026
A dispatch from Bulgaria
Maybe the most underrated country in Europe, plus a new book chapter
Mar 31
•
John Polonis
2
1
Nobody Watches When Trump Moves Markets
From Liberation Day to the Iran War, the same suspicious trades keep happening
Mar 25
•
John Polonis
8
5
How Private Credit Killed Investor Protection
The industry sued, the SEC lost, and your retirement savings are inside
Mar 22
•
John Polonis
3
1
Japan's Impossible Choice With U.S. Consequences
Japan's debt trap, a weakening yen, and a Trump meeting that won't fix either
Mar 19
•
John Polonis
2
1
1
Why Private Credit May Be the Next Financial Crisis
The structural problems private credit doesn't want you to see
Mar 15
•
John Polonis
6
2
What Will Determine Escalation in Iran
The macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that matter most
Mar 10
•
John Polonis
8
7
1
What You're Missing About Iran
On dollar strength, Chinese energy costs, and the fertilizer story nobody is telling
Mar 7
•
John Polonis
11
2
4
Explosive Pentagon Contracts
Why the Challenger explosion should be a warning about artificial intelligence
Mar 3
•
John Polonis
3
2
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